Six years after the pandemic-era buying frenzy, the US housing market has settled into something closer to balance, though not everywhere at once. Sales have slowed, inventory has climbed to its highest level in over a decade, and mortgage rates have stabilized in a range most buyers still consider expensive. Here is what the latest data shows about where the market actually stands heading into the final months of 2026, and what the major forecasters expect next.

Home Prices Are Still Rising, Just More Slowly

According to the National Association of Realtors, the median existing-home price reached $429,100 in August 2026, up 1.6% from a year earlier. That increase marked the 38th consecutive month of year-over-year price growth nationally, a streak that has held even as sales activity has cooled. Existing-home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million in August, down 2.0% from July and 1.2% from a year earlier, though NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun pointed out that sales are still up 1.6% year-to-date through August despite higher borrowing costs. The takeaway: prices haven’t cracked, but the pace of annual gains has clearly downshifted from the double-digit growth of the pandemic years.

Inventory Has Flipped Toward Buyers

The most significant structural change in the US market this year is supply. Total housing inventory hit 1.62 million units in August, equal to a 4.9-month supply, the highest level of unsold homes in more than ten years. A 5-to-6-month supply is traditionally considered a balanced market between buyers and sellers; at just under 5 months, the national market is now close to that balance after years of tight, seller-favoring conditions. More listings sitting on the market longer gives buyers more room to negotiate on price and concessions than at almost any point since 2019.

Mortgage Rates: Stuck in the Mid-6% Range

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at roughly 6.77% in September 2026, with 15-year fixed rates around 5.95%. Forecasters are not expecting a return to the sub-4% rates of the early 2020s anytime soon. Fannie Mae projects rates holding near 6.4% through the rest of 2026, the Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts around 6.5% for the third and fourth quarters, and a Reuters survey of economists points to a gradual easing toward 6.3% by year-end. Looking further out, most forecasts keep rates in a 6.3% to 6.5% band through 2027 and into 2028. The consistent message from lenders and economists alike: today’s mid-6% rates are closer to the new normal than a temporary peak.

A Country Divided by Region

National averages mask very different regional stories. The Northeast posted the strongest price growth, with a median price of $556,900, up 4.3% year-over-year, while sales volume stayed comparatively low at an annual rate of 480,000. The Midwest combined solid affordability with a median price of $340,400, up 3.3% annually, on a strong regional sales pace. The South remains the country’s largest market by sales volume, at 1.84 million annually, though price growth there has nearly stalled at just 0.7% year-over-year as new construction keeps supply relatively plentiful. The West stood out as the only region with falling prices, down 0.2% year-over-year to a median of $619,100, reflecting the affordability ceiling that high-cost coastal metros have been pressing against.

What the Rest of 2026 Likely Looks Like

Taken together, the data points to a market that is cooling in pace rather than reversing in direction. Prices are still rising nationally, but unevenly, with the Northeast and Midwest outperforming a flat South and a softening West. Inventory near balanced-market levels gives buyers meaningfully more leverage than they’ve had since before the pandemic, while sellers who price realistically are still finding buyers, just not bidding wars. Mortgage rates in the mid-6% range look set to persist through the rest of the year and into 2027, meaning affordability will keep depending more on local price trends and buyer negotiating power than on any near-term rate relief.

Where That Leaves Buyers and Sellers

The US housing market in 2026 isn’t the frenzy of 2021 or the standstill some predicted when rates first rose. It’s a market rebalancing region by region: prices still climbing in the Northeast and Midwest, essentially flat in the South, and softening in the West, all against a backdrop of mortgage rates that appear to have found a floor in the mid-6% range rather than a ceiling on their way back down.